Analysis of global higher-education trends indicates that Chinese students are increasingly choosing to stay in Asia to further their studies.

Zhao Junyi is one of many postgraduate students who are rerouting back to Asia after studying elsewhere. Originally from Beijing, Zhao started a four-year PhD programme in planetary science at the University of Hong Kong in September. He’s happy about his choice.

In Hong Kong, Zhao says, he can stay abreast of updates from China’s space programme in an English-speaking, international environment, as well as “connect with the research community and collaborate with colleagues from Europe and the United States”.

Hong Kong is a special administrative region of China and has a different education system from the Chinese mainland. Therefore, students from the Chinese mainland studying in Hong Kong are thought of as studying ‘overseas’.

Zhao obtained his bachelor’s degree in astronomy earlier this year from the University of Michigan in Ann Arbor. He says he decided against furthering his studies in the United States partly because of the federal government’s cuts to scientific funding. He didn’t go back to the Chinese mainland because only those with a master’s degree can apply for doctoral courses there, whereas Hong Kong doesn’t have such a requirement, he explains.

China’s rapid advancements in space exploration are also a massive draw. Zhao’s current supervisor is analysing lunar samples collected by China’s Chang’e-5 and Chang’e-6 space missions. For Zhao, who grew up as a fan of the Chang’e programme, it is a dream come true to learn about its progress first-hand and to potentially be a part of it himself.

“Hong Kong is so attractive in so many ways,” says Zhao, who is on a university scholarship that covers his tuition fees, rent and life expenses.

Closer to home

Zhao is among a growing crop of Chinese students who are seeking degrees in Asia rather than in the West.

The shift can be felt most strongly in Malaysia, Hong Kong and Macau. These are the places projected to have the fastest increase in the number of enrolled students from the Chinese mainland between 2025 and 2030, according to figures shared with Nature by London-based consultancy Quacquarelli Symonds (QS), which analyses global higher-education institutions and student mobility (see ‘Student flows’).

For the wealthy, English-speaking countries that have been popular with Chinese students for decades, the projections by QS point in the opposite direction. The United States, Australia and Canada will see the number of Chinese enrolments decrease year-on-year, with the United Kingdom holding steady. The drop in the number of students headed for the United States is projected to happen particularly quickly.

The trend shows that prospective Chinese students now consider a wider combination of factors, including how far the host country is from home and how easily they can find a job with their degree, says Alice Wei, a consultant at QS.

For Zhao, one of the most exciting things about studying in Hong Kong is that it means he can visit home easily, especially for important occasions. “I couldn’t go home for the Chinese New Year for many years when I was in the United States because it was not a public holiday there.”

The push

The number of Chinese students studying in US universities is projected to fall by an average of 4% each year between 2025 and 2030, the sharpest drop of all countries and territories assessed.

Students from China — and other countries — are facing more restrictions during and after their time in the United States, Wei says. For example, the US federal government in July proposed putting a hard limit on the duration of visas issued to foreign students and requires them to pack up and leave within 30 days of their programmes ending. Another US proposal suggests a US$100,000 fee for international students if they intend to stay to work after graduating. Australia and Canada have also introduced tougher immigration rules for foreign students.

Geopolitical tensions are another deterrent. US-based researchers are increasingly being scrutinized over their collaboration with Chinese partners as the United States enhances research security. For Zhao and other prospective students from China, such efforts make it harder for them to imagine a future in the United States.

“Because I am a Chinese national, it would be nearly impossible for me to participate in NASA’s research programmes,” Zhao says. NASA has blocked Chinese citizens from joining its programme out of security concerns.

The pull

Simultaneously, various factors are pulling Chinese students closer to home.

Shorter geographical distances and familiar lifestyles are two possible selling points. Malaysia, for example, is projected to see an annual rise of 13% in the number of Chinese enrolments between 2025 and 2030, the highest growth in QS’s analysis.

Malaysia’s sizeable community of people who speak Mandarin or Chinese dialects makes Chinese students feel at home in the southeast Asian country, says Ngeow Chow Bing, director of the Institute of China Studies at the University of Malaya in Kuala Lumpur. A visa-free travel policy between the two nations also means that their relatives can visit them whenever they want, he says.

It is hard to compare Chinese students in Malaysia directly with those in the West, because they study different disciplines, Ngeow says. For example, Chinese students going to the United States are more likely to pursue careers in science, technology, engineering and mathematics, but in Malaysia, the “vast majority” study social sciences and languages, he says. “Malaysia is still not yet very renowned for science and tech,” he notes.

In South Korea, the fourth fastest-growing destination on the list — with a yearly increase in enrolment rates of 8% — it is the country’s high-tech manufacturing industries that attract Chinese students, such as those for semiconductor chips, biopharmaceutical and advanced materials, says Xie Yuzhen, a Shanghai-based independent researcher who studies China’s higher-education industry. Students can gain first-hand experience in these industries owing to the close relationship between big companies and universities, Xie says.

Junsuk Rho, a materials scientist at Pohang University of Science and Technology in South Korea, has observed an influx of Chinese graduate students to the country over the past few years.