Rising sea levels might seem like someone else’s problem if you live inland. But, even miles from the coast, changing sea levels can affect the food we eat, the goods we buy, the energy we use and the taxes we pay.
Global sea levels are predicted to rise by between 28 and 55cm by 2100 if greenhouse gas emissions are significantly reduced. Sea levels could rise by between 63cm and 1m if emissions stay at very high levels. A rise of more than 2m by 2100 cannot be completely ruled out. Here’s how sea-level rise is already affecting our daily lives and exposing weaknesses in everything from power supplies to infrastructure:
1. Threat to food crops
The Fens, which spread across Lincolnshire, Cambridgeshire and Norfolk, hold 48% of England’s best agricultural land and contribute over 7% of UK agricultural output, including about a third of England’s vegetables. Much of this landscape lies at or below sea level, which leaves it vulnerable to flooding and to contamination with saline water.
The land’s productivity depends on an extensive network of drainage channels, pumping stations and flood defences. A breach can destroy crops and leave productive soil unusable for years. As homegrown produce supplies only about 60% of the food the UK eats, losing Fens land alone would not empty shelves, although it would deepen reliance on imports that are themselves exposed to sea-level rise and other effects of climate change.
Read more: Britain’s most artificial landscape may not survive climate change
2. Disruption to port transport
Around 85% of the UK’s international freight by weight and more than 80% of world merchandise trade moves by sea. A flooded terminal at Southampton, in Shanghai or on a Caribbean island delays goods bound for shops and factories far inland.
Even if a port isn’t directly affected by floods, there can be disruption if the infrastructure connecting it to the rest of the economy is inundated. Railways, roads, warehouses, electrical substations and fuel distribution networks can all be affected by coastal flooding. The resulting shortages and price rises would have serious knock-on effects for households.
3. Damage to power supplies
The UK has three times more coastal energy facilities than any other European country. These facilities include oil refineries, fossil fuel and liquefied natural gas terminals, and nuclear power stations. Floodwater can inundate electrical equipment, damage control systems, disrupt fuel deliveries and cut off the roads and railways on which workers and suppliers depend, while saltwater can corrode infrastructure and complicate repairs.
Simultaneous damage to several facilities, or a prolonged interruption to a major fuel terminal or electricity connection, could make it harder to maintain reliable supplies. Even where electricity generation continues, damage to substations and other network infrastructure can prevent power from reaching consumers. This has implications for household energy bills, industrial production and the reliability of electricity supplies.
4. Risk to national security
The UK’s defence infrastructure is also threatened by sea-level rise. Naval bases, dockyards and other coastal facilities are exposed to rising sea levels and storm surges, potentially affecting access, operations and the infrastructure needed to maintain military capability. Keeping these sites functioning in coming decades will require action that may include relocating some of them.
Sea-level rise could also make the rest of the world a more dangerous place. Population displacement driven by climate pressures, including sea-level rise, places additional demands on humanitarian assistance and international cooperation. It also compounds any existing political and security pressures nationally.
5. Rising costs
The costs of sea-level rise fall on people across the country. Protecting vulnerable communities, subsidising flood insurance and relocating communities and infrastructure from areas that can no longer be defended will require substantial investment.
Meanwhile, the loss of productive farmland could push up food prices, and disruption to ports and transport links could make imported goods more expensive or harder to obtain. Damage to energy infrastructure could add further costs for households and businesses. The cumulative effect would be felt across the country through higher prices, higher taxes and reduced spending on other public services.
What next?
Rapid emissions reductions to keep overshoot of 1.5°C as brief and as low as possible are the safest way to reduce the rate and extent of sea level rise, and the associated costs of adapting. However, current global policies are projected to take us to about 2.8°C of warming. The UN’s upcoming climate summit, Cop31 in Turkey this November, will be a chance to close the gap between what has been promised and what is needed.
The world has already warmed by 1.4°C, so continued sea level rise is now inevitable even with rapid emissions reductions. Adaptation is as essential as mitigation. The design of sea defences and infrastructure need to be adapted accordingly as seas rise. Reducing greenhouse gas emissions and improving coastal adaptation will help determine how severely sea level rise affects people, both inland and close to the coast.