The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change recommended 1.5°C carbon reduction target, requiring powerful enforcement from major economies. China, the largest CO2 emitter, is facing severe difficulties for both variable renewable accommodation and decarbonization of hard-to-abate sectors. Hydrogen, as a critical green energy carrier bridging renewable to end-users, faces significant obstacles in real-world deployment such as costly transportation, storage and fuel-cell adoption. Affordable and coordinated hydrogen deployment plan to accelerate the carbon-neutral transition remains ambiguous. Here, we present cost-effective carbon-neutral transition pathways for entire energy economy of China emphasizing the significant role of hydrogen and derivatives as green energy carriers, considering high-resolution renewable deployments, hourly power system operations in 29 provincial regions, over 46,000 rail/road/marine/pipeline transfer routing of hydrogen derivatives, process-level fuel adoption strategies in all end-use sectors. Results show that incorporating hydrogen and derivatives can reduce the overall transition cost by $ 10.7 trillion compared with renewable and electrification pathways, achieving negative carbon abatement costs ($-6.15/ton), eliminating external oil import expenses, equivalent to over 50% of China trade surplus (2023 level)1, significantly boosting employment and economic growth. Hydrogen derivative based transition pathway offers a vital direction for affordable and secure decarbonization for China and beyond under volatile international energy markets.
This is a preview of subscription content, access via your institution
Access options
Access Nature and 54 other Nature Portfolio journals
Get Nature+, our best-value online-access subscription
Learn moreSubscribe to this journal
Receive 51 print issues and online access
Rent or buy this article
Prices vary by article type
Prices may be subject to local taxes which are calculated during checkout
Explore related subjects
Discover the latest articles and news in related subjects.Author information
These authors contributed equally: Xinyu Chen, Xinyang Guo, Xi Yang
Authors and Affiliations
School of Management, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan, China
State Key Laboratory of Advanced Electromagnetic Engineering and Technology, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan, China
Xinyu Chen & Xinyang Guo
John A. Paulson School of Engineering and Applied Sciences, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA, USA
Xinyang Guo, Xi Yang & Michael McElroy
Corresponding authors
Correspondence to Xinyu Chen, Xinyang Guo, Jiashuo Li or Michael McElroy.
Supplementary information
Supplementary Information (download PDF )
Supplementary methods, equations and discussion documenting the HeD-MISSION framework. The file includes 52 figures and 160 tables covering model architecture, scenario settings, data sources, variables and constraints, technology parameters, sectoral formulations, validation benchmarks, cost and emissions accounting, sensitivity analyses, and resource and implementation considerations.
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Chen, X., Guo, X., Yang, X. et al. Hydrogen Derivatives Enable Cost-Effective Carbon Neutrality in China. Nature (2026). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-026-11351-4
DOIhttps://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-026-11351-4
Share this article
Anyone you share the following link with will be able to read this content:
Sorry, a shareable link is not currently available for this article.
Provided by the Springer Nature SharedIt content-sharing initiative