Microsoft is on pace for its first record close since October 2025, having gained more than 50% from a June low and added roughly $1.5T in market value. The AI-disruption panic that caused the fall also hit SAP, which has not recovered.

Microsoft is on track for its first record close in almost a year, though it has not got there yet. The stock last set a closing high in October 2025.

Shares rose as much as 1.8% to $551.13 on Tuesday morning in New York, Bloomberg reported. Monday’s close of $541.15 had left it just short of its October 2025 peak, at a market value of $4T.

The swing has been violent in both directions. Microsoft has gained more than 50% from a June low, adding roughly $1.5T in market value.

June was the worst of it. The stock fell 17% that month, its worst since 2000, erasing nearly $600B as investors doubted AI infrastructure spending was earning anything back.

By late July it was down 18.7% for the year, and the options market was pricing a $190B swing on one earnings report. Sentiment had moved from faith to accounting.

The report answered the question. Azure grew 43% against the 40% expected, the fastest cloud growth in four years and well clear of the guidance that triggered the sell-off.

It also pushed Azure past $100B in annual revenue for the first time. Shares jumped 16% the next day, and the company went on to its best quarter since 1998.

Analysts followed the price. Of 72 tracked by Bloomberg, 68 rate the stock a buy and none a sell, with an average target of $584 implying about 8% more.

Not everyone is celebrating. Shareholders sued Microsoft in June over the collapse that preceded all of this, and the case has not been resolved.

A Michigan police and fire pension fund alleges the company concealed that Azure growth was slowing and that heavy AI spending would be needed. The claim covers May 2025 to January 2026.

Europe got the same fear and not the same cure. The AI-disruption panic that hit Microsoft also hit SAP’s shares, down about 35% for the year by late July.

They have not come back. SAP traded at €193.91 on Monday, around 20.6% below its 52-week high, worth about €224B against the €313B that made it Europe’s most valuable company in March 2025.

The mood is not uniform. South Korea’s Kospi fell more than 7% intraday on Tuesday, with Samsung down 9%, and Broadcom’s chief executive said many AI investors have no clue what they are funding.